Yes, but when? I recall Henry Kaufman (Salomon Brothers in the early 80's) saying that he could forecast rates or timing, but not both. I've been predicting this correction for years now and have been consistently wrong. I'd like to say I've been "early" but of course in the financial markets "early" and "wrong" are often the same thing. No one is impressed by the accuracy of the stopped clock, which is right twice a day (or once a day in the 24-hour digital world).
Excellent analysis as usual. The conundrum remains, “that’s interesting and I agree, but I (as a fund manager / private investor / banker etc) need to invest, so I must pick the best of the bad choices”. And the question, “how long can this go on and what will be the consequences?” I think we’re beginning to see the answer to the latter in the form of planned reduced FRS stimulus, which will be followed by higher interest rates and equity markets sell off. Then, inevitably, as a consequence of sustained fiscal and monetary stimulus (the former embedding largely unfunded structural programs that will continue to expand), higher inflation. Then higher rates, further corrections especially in the debt markets, and the usual wailing and gnashing of teeth and expressions of surprise that should surprise no one. An imbalanced system will ultimately adjust in some form, and the longer the imbalance continues the more severe the adjustment. Paul Volcker II anyone?
Yes, but when? I recall Henry Kaufman (Salomon Brothers in the early 80's) saying that he could forecast rates or timing, but not both. I've been predicting this correction for years now and have been consistently wrong. I'd like to say I've been "early" but of course in the financial markets "early" and "wrong" are often the same thing. No one is impressed by the accuracy of the stopped clock, which is right twice a day (or once a day in the 24-hour digital world).
Excellent analysis as usual. The conundrum remains, “that’s interesting and I agree, but I (as a fund manager / private investor / banker etc) need to invest, so I must pick the best of the bad choices”. And the question, “how long can this go on and what will be the consequences?” I think we’re beginning to see the answer to the latter in the form of planned reduced FRS stimulus, which will be followed by higher interest rates and equity markets sell off. Then, inevitably, as a consequence of sustained fiscal and monetary stimulus (the former embedding largely unfunded structural programs that will continue to expand), higher inflation. Then higher rates, further corrections especially in the debt markets, and the usual wailing and gnashing of teeth and expressions of surprise that should surprise no one. An imbalanced system will ultimately adjust in some form, and the longer the imbalance continues the more severe the adjustment. Paul Volcker II anyone?