A very interesting and timely analysis as usual. Clearly there are significant debt management challenges ahead for China across its private sector, municipal, project and other borrowing mechanisms (albeit not at the Federal level, in contrast to the US). One issue which will play out over time is the treatment of international vs domestic creditors. Given the control exerted by the CCP via official and other channels, they will have considerable discretion and influence on this outcome. To put it mildly, I expect that the international lenders will absorb a much higher proportion of the pain.
A very interesting and timely analysis as usual. Clearly there are significant debt management challenges ahead for China across its private sector, municipal, project and other borrowing mechanisms (albeit not at the Federal level, in contrast to the US). One issue which will play out over time is the treatment of international vs domestic creditors. Given the control exerted by the CCP via official and other channels, they will have considerable discretion and influence on this outcome. To put it mildly, I expect that the international lenders will absorb a much higher proportion of the pain.