Four Statements
The Wisdom of Inspector Armand Gamache
This has been a light reading summer for me. My current favorite is the Inspector Gamache mystery series written by Louise Penny, recommended by my wife. I have not yet read the entire series, but I have read enough of it to recommend it for those of you who like intelligent, literate and witty detective stories with a bit of international cuisine and culture thrown in, in this case Quebecois. (Amazon will soon premiere an 8-part TV series, “Three Pines”, based on the Louise Penny novels and starring Alfred Molina as Inspector Gamache, pictured above.) I have found in these books very little finance but a good deal of humanity and some sound advice.
What I would like to share with you today are Inspector Gamache’s “four statements that lead to wisdom”, along with a bit of personal commentary which I hope you might find useful at some point in your careers.
Statement 1: “I don’t know”. In my experience, many students have difficulty saying “I don’t know” and they generally like it even less when their instructor says it. (Exhibit A, from a student review a few years ago: “Why does W&M pay Professor Tack, when he so often says to his students ‘I don’t know’ or ‘It depends’? Isn’t he supposed to know the answers to our questions?”) And I suspect that the situation does not improve when these former students get into the working world and the stakes suddenly go up. Once you start working, it is your bonus and your job that is at risk, not just your class participation grade.
But there is a lot in this world that we simply do not know or fully understand--more than the sum of what we do know perhaps--and I don’t see why acknowledging this obvious reality should so often be viewed as a sign of personal ignorance, poor preparation or lack of self-confidence. Rather, I would have thought the statement “I don’t know” should in at least some instances be viewed positively, as indicative of intellectual honesty and humility and as a sign of personal strength and confidence. After all it is hard to say “I don’t know”, which is why so many people try to wing it instead. “Fake it ‘til you make it” may work in some environments, but generally not for long.
Of course there are some things one should know for certain—for example the key assumptions used in your valuation model—and in these cases a response of “I don’t know” will not generally suffice. But many of the questions which life presents to us cannot be answered with such clear cut factual responses. And even in those situations which can be addressed this way, we should acknowledge that many of the “facts” that we use to analyze financial (and other) matters are really just assumptions, estimates or forecasts with varying degrees of accuracy and integrity. If I have built a valuation model for Tesla, I should be able to tell you with confidence the Company’s historical growth rate in reported revenues as well as the key assumptions I have made with respect to future revenues, but I certainly cannot answer with this same degree of confidence the question “What will Tesla’s revenues be five years from now?”. No one really knows the answer to this question, not even Elon Musk, and the true answer will not become known even to him for another five years.
In cases like this it would seem to me that “I don’t know” would be the appropriate response, ideally followed by an explanation of what is in the model and some further insights on how one might think about alternative future revenue growth scenarios. In this and many other instances, it would be good if we could all become more transparent and comfortable acknowledging the limits of our knowledge and understanding, while recognizing that “I don’t know” might be the beginning of our response but it should not be the end of our inquiry.
Statement 2: “I was wrong”. We all make mistakes of various kinds, some of us more often and more egregiously than others. And when we make mistakes we should be prepared to acknowledge them and make amends. When I find bugs in my valuation model, I should clean them up and share the revised results with anyone who has relied on my previously flawed work product. I should not attempt to sweep the problem under the rug unless the mistakes are truly not material. Ignoring the problem will not make it go away; in fact it will likely compound the problem with potentially serious consequences down the road. Taking personal responsibility for one’s mistakes is generally the right and responsible thing to do and we should instinctively do it for that reason alone. But in taking the high road, it is also likely that we will win credibility and integrity points with our clients and colleagues and our past mistakes will soon be forgotten.
Statement 3: “I am sorry”. A sincere “I am sorry” can go a long way to clearing the air after we have made a mistake which causes damage or inconvenience to others, but “I am sorry” is also an appropriate response in circumstances when others have suffered loss or pain due to no fault of yours and often no fault of their own either. Over the course of a full career, it is almost certain that you will suffer serious setbacks of both a professional and personal nature. (I certainly did.) And it would be nice to know that when these things happen, your work colleagues as well as your friends and family will all be sincerely empathetic and supportive. And that you too will demonstrate this same sort of empathy and support for those around you. This sort of behavior is perhaps demonstrated more in some firms (and industries) than in others, but when it happens consistently over time it is because the people who work in these firms actually care about those around them, as individuals and not just as employees. And for the people in these firms, saying “I am sorry” comes quite naturally.
Statement 4: “I need help”. As with the other statements above, saying “I need help” strikes many of us as a sign of personal weakness to be avoided at all costs. Not so. If you are having trouble with your valuation model, or managing a tricky client relationship, or getting along with one of your work colleagues, or dealing with sensitive personal matters at home, by all means ask for help and be prepared to accept it when it is offered. We all need help from time to time, but it often seems that we are least likely to ask for help when we need it the most. This is not good and the consequences tend to get worse over time, not better. And whether or not we recognize or accept our own need for help, we should be aware that others around us may also be in trouble and in need of our help. We are all in the same boat together, and if we willingly and graciously help one another it is much more likely that we will all get safely to shore.
And this, I think, is really the wisdom of Inspector Gamache.